Stability and volatility in the Polish political elite: Parliamentarian candidacy and MP ranks in the 1989-2023 period

Despite the fact that political systems in post-communist Central and Eastern Europe, including the one in Poland, have often been labelled as labile (see Gwiazda 2009; Millard 2009, 2012), previous empirical research on the candidacy and MP population showed a substantial degree of stability in the political ranks (see Sadowski 2018). Neither upheaval political events nor shaky party systems have been able to considerably disrupt a definitive level of constant continued representation in parliament. The key breakage moment of the 1989-91 transition, involving the first democratic elections, has been followed by a consolidating, stabilising presence on electoral lists and within the MP ranks, especially in the 2000s. As proposed in the previous work on this topic (Sadowski, Pohorila 2018), the phenomenon of circulation and stability within political competition is contingent on a specific bargain between party elites and candidacy ranks, which in turn is a derivative of electoral rules, party system, and distribution of political resources (in a broad sense - including financial, administrative resources, social capital, personal recognition and others). Based on the concepts and measures developed in the previous research, I aim to analyse the changes in the circulation of the Polish political class after a new political cleavage emerged in 2005 and the increase in political polarisation after the 2015 elections. The analysis based on the complete record of MPs and MP hopefuls since 1989 is going to include the data from the recent parliamentary elections of 2023 and will focus on both – personal (in)stability and affiliation (in)stability within the ranks. Results will enable to draw conclusions concerning political elite fluctuations and stability within a single polity under much different levels and vectors of political polarisation. In particular, the analysis will indicate if under a more intensive political rivalisation and ideological conflict political parties gain further gatekeeping powers. References: Gwiazda, Anna (2009) Poland’s Quasi-Institutionalized Party System: The Importance of Elites and Institutions. Perspectives on European Politics and Society 10(3):350–76. Millard, Frances (2009) Poland: Parties without a Party System, 1991–2008. Politics and Policy 37(4): 781–98. Millard, Frances (2012) Democratic Elections in Poland, 1991–2007. London: Routledge. Sadowski, Ireneusz (2017) The Constant Electoral Flux? Party System and the Circulation of Candidates and Parliamentarians in Poland, 1989–2011. International Journal of Sociology 48(1): 34-59. Sadowski, Ireneusz, Nataliia Pohorila (2018) Game of Seats: Electoral Rules, Revolutions, and Affiliation Switching in Ukraine, 1990–2014, East European Politics and Societies 32(1): 142-167.